September is shaping up to be a decisive month for the federal budget and for the future of research funding. With the fiscal year ending on September 30, Congress faces a tight timeline to keep the government open while debating funding levels for 2026.

The administration’s FY26 request called for historic cuts to non-defense programs—a 23% overall reduction. Specific proposals included:

• NIH: –44%

• NSF: –55.8%

• HUD: –43.6%

• State Department: –84%

These reductions, if enacted, would have had devastating consequences for U.S. science and global competitiveness.

Both the House and Senate have moved in the opposite direction:

• NIH: House set funding at $48 billion, while the Senate approved a $400 million increase over FY25.

• NSF: House reduced NSF by $2 billion compared to FY25 (still $3 billion above the administration’s request); the Senate held NSF flat at current levels.

• DOE Office of Science: House provided a $160 million increase.

However, even when Congress appropriates funding, the administration may withhold or rescind it.

• In July, $8 billion was clawed back from foreign aid, NPR, and PBS.

• In August, another $5 billion in foreign aid was targeted through a “pocket rescission” tactic, previously flagged by GAO as unlawful.

This creates significant uncertainty for agencies and institutions: will appropriated research dollars actually be released?

Without a continuing resolution (CR), the government will shut down on October 1. A CR requires bipartisan Senate support, which may be difficult to achieve given rescission fights and election-year politics. A shutdown this fall remains a real possibility.

Even if Congress acts to protect science funding, uncertainty around implementation could slow or stall critical work. Risks include:

• Delayed or withheld NIH and NSF funding for new grants and projects.

• Uncertainty for labs and training programs that depend on timely disbursements.

• Potential “brain drain” as U.S. scientists consider moving abroad to more stable research environments.

As September unfolds, NAVREF will continue to monitor appropriations, rescissions, and shutdown negotiations closely.